Herndon closed 49 homes in October, down from 99 a year earlier and the fewest of any October since at least 2015. The 20170 ZIP code, which covers the Town of Herndon and the Dranesville area north of it, accounted for 40 of the 50 missing sales. It closed 15 homes, against 55 in October 2025. Oak Hill, the 20171 ZIP code south of the Dulles Toll Road, closed 34, against 44.
The drop follows a slow late summer for contracts. A home that closes in October usually went under contract in August or September, and Herndon buyers signed far fewer contracts in those two months than they did in 2025, most of all in 20170.
October 2025 was a strong month, and October 2026 fell well below normal
Herndon’s 99 October closings in 2025 were the third-highest October count since 2015, behind 2021 and 2020, so an unusually strong year-ago month accounts for part of the drop. Measured against the five-year October average of 79, this October’s 49 sales still ran 38 percent short.
Year to date, the slowdown is smaller: Herndon has closed 718 homes from January through October, down 6.1 percent from 765 a year earlier, and buyers have signed 778 contracts, down 7.0 percent from 837.
Buyers in 20170 signed about half as many contracts in August and September
Buyers in the 20170 ZIP code signed 29 contracts in August and 15 in September. A year earlier they signed 52 in each month. Those late-summer contracts become October closings, and 20170’s October sales fell to 15 from 55, the fewest for any October since at least 2015. Its previous October low in that span was 29, in 2023. Detached closings in 20170 fell to 7 from 35. In October, 20170 buyers signed 28 contracts, against 43 a year earlier.
Oak Hill held closer to its usual pace. Buyers in 20171 signed 45 contracts in August, more than the 38 of a year earlier, and 33 in September, against 45. Its 34 October closings sit near its October average of 36 since 2015.
Detached buyers in Herndon kept pace with last October
Across both ZIP codes, buyers signed 54 contracts in October, down from 75. Nearly all of the drop came from townhouses and condos. Detached contracts held at 30, against 31 a year ago. Townhouse contracts fell to 16 from 28, and condo contracts fell to 8 from 16.
The contract ratio counts homes under contract for every home for sale, and it tends to move a month or two before prices do. Herndon’s detached ratio rose to 0.61 from 0.57. Townhouses fell to 0.34 from 0.65, and condos to 0.18 from 0.40.
Herndon had 143 homes for sale at the end of October, up from 120 a year earlier. Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every home on the market at the recent pace of sales, and Herndon’s reached 2.04 months, up from 1.63. Condos stand at 3.82 months, against 2.04 a year ago, which puts them past the three-month mark that a common rule of thumb uses to separate a seller’s market from a balanced one. Townhouses sit at 2.18 months and detached houses at 1.33.
Herndon’s median fell 12 percent because fewer detached houses sold
Herndon’s median sold price was $638,500 in October, down 11.9 percent from $725,000 a year earlier. The median is the middle sale once every sale is lined up by price, and detached houses, the most expensive home type, made up a smaller share of the line. They accounted for 20 of October’s 48 sales in the listing data, or 42 percent, against 51 of 99, or 52 percent, a year ago.
The detached median rose 5.8 percent to $926,000, and the condo median rose 4.3 percent to $390,000. The townhouse median fell 20.3 percent to $530,000, on 15 sales. With only 15 sales, a few homes at either end of the price range can move that median sharply.
The homes that sold closed a little further from their first asking price. October’s average sale closed at 98.0 percent of its original list price, against 99.1 percent a year earlier, and 29 percent of sales closed at or above that price, against 48 percent in October 2025.
Nearly half of Herndon’s active listings have cut their price
As of Nov. 10, 133 Herndon homes were listed as active, and 47 percent of them had cut their price at least once. The median cut was 2.7 percent, and the median listing had spent 51 days on the market, counting any earlier listing periods for the same home. Townhouse sellers have cut most often, on 57 percent of active listings, against 44 percent for condos and 35 percent for detached houses.
Price against your ZIP code and your home type
If you own a detached house, Herndon detached buyers signed as many contracts in October as a year ago, and supply sits at 1.33 months. Detached prices rose 5.8 percent, though on 20 sales.
If you own a townhouse, 44 are for sale against 37 a year ago, townhouse contracts fell by 43 percent, and more than half of active townhouse listings have cut their price. Price against the townhouses competing with yours this month.
If you own a condo, 50 condos are for sale against 38 a year ago, and condo buyers signed 8 contracts in October. With 3.82 months of supply, condo sellers face the most competition of any Herndon home type.
If you own in 20170, check how many contracts your own neighborhood has seen since August before you set a price.
If you are buying, Herndon has 23 more homes for sale than a year ago, and nearly half of them have already come down from their first price.
Reston’s October looked different, with nearly twice as many homes for sale as a year ago and a median that did not move. Our Reston October report covers it home type by home type.
We work across Herndon and Reston every week and track these numbers by home type and ZIP code. If you want to know what your home would sell for this winter, request a home value estimate or reach out and we will walk through it with you.
See something missing or wrong? Email us at [email protected] and we will check it and update the post.
